Barack and Hilary in Unity

Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton address united democrats from Unity, New Hampshire - where each received exactly 107 votes in the New Hampshire Primary:

Hope VS More of the Same

Hat Tip to Robert:

Polls - Everybody's got one

I noticed several postings on the Indiana Blogwire today regarding polls that spelled gloom and doom for Barack Obama. Now I know, like most of you, that the only poll that matters is the one that happens on election day. But I thought I'd share some highlights from another poll released today by Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg:

• The survey found the New York senator leading Barack Obama by just 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which votes next Tuesday. Such a margin would not give her much of a boost in the battle for the party's nomination.



• What is more, the poll found Clinton trails Obama by 5 points in Indiana, another Rust Belt state that should play to her strengths among blue-collar voters.



• In North Carolina, an Obama stronghold, he is running 13 points ahead.

The poll interviewed 623 voters in Pennsylvania, 687 in Indiana and 691 in North Carolina who were expected to cast Democratic ballots. The margin of sampling error for the findings in each state is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The telephone interviews took place Thursday through Monday, meaning the bulk were conducted just as controversy broke out over the Obama "bitterness" remark that was widely criticized as demeaning rural voters in Pennsylvania. He suggested that for some residents of small towns, their commitment to gun rights, religious faith and hostility toward foreign trade had its roots in their "bitterness" about economic hardships.

Voters were also asked about the controversy that has dogged the candidate in recent weeks: racially incendiary comments made by the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., the now-retired pastor of Obama's church in Chicago. The furor prodded Obama to deliver a major speech on racial relations in America last month. In Pennsylvania, the flap seems to have marginally helped Obama more than hurt him: 24% said his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him; 15% said it made them think less highly of him; 58% said it made no difference in their views. And women voters are defecting:

One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests -- women -- have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%.

Looking ahead to the general election, many Democrats -- including some Clinton backers -- appear to have concluded that Obama might be in a better position to defeat McCain. In Indiana, for instance, 37% said they thought Obama would fare better against McCain in November, compared to 18% who said Clinton was more likely to beat the Republican.

"I would prefer Clinton, but Obama has less baggage to throw darts at," said Eric Beiz, a realtor in Indianapolis. "She is going to have a tough time."

Clinton also suffers from being seen as less admirable than Obama. Even in Pennsylvania, 47% of Democrats said he had more honesty and integrity, compared to 26% who thought that of Clinton.

"She doesn't tell the truth a lot," said Brannon Crace, a store manager in Frankfurt, Ind. "We've already been through the Clinton era."

In all three states, Clinton was seen as better equipped to handle trade and healthcare policy. But she does not appear to have been as persuasive in making a core argument of her campaign -- that she would be better prepared to lead the nation's military and foreign policy.

Asked who would be better as commander in chief, voters in North Carolina chose Obama, 45% to 28%; in Indiana, Obama was chosen 37% to 29%. Only in Pennsylvania did voters prefer Clinton as commander in chief, 44% to 39%.

Rocky who?

In connection with the upcoming Pennsylvania Primary, Hillary Clinton recently compared herself to Rocky Balboa. We beg to differ...

Obama Rallied the Fort

I was unfortunately unable to attend yesterday's visit by Senator Obama, but I've gotten a great feel for what I missed from everyone else's reports. There appears to have been far greater coverage from the old media as well as the area blogs than what was the case for Mrs.Clinton's recent appearance. In this morning's Journal Gazette, Kelly Soderlund noted what I thought was one of the most interesting facets of his visit. . .the obvious contrast between yesterday's rally and Senator Clinton's visit one week ago:

When Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., entered the gym, the crowd of 2,800 people yelled and screamed and clapped so loud that the sound ricocheted off the four walls. Audience members lifted their cameras and cell phones to take pictures of the presidential hopeful as he took the stage to talk about the 40th anniversary of the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr., gun control, education and the economy.

“He just brings so much life to everything,” said Gertha Jordan, 74, a retired Fort Wayne resident. “I’m just happy to have him running. He just seems like he’s full of hope and everything.”

It was a noted contrast to the event that his opponent, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., held at a small Fort Wayne restaurant a week before. Clinton spoke to a group of 100 people in the tight quarters after she briefly addressed hundreds of people waiting in the restaurant parking lot, but the energy for Obama was a lot different. Obama’s crowd was louder, more enthusiastic, larger and more diverse than the Clinton group.

As has been the case in every other location, people who were on the fence as well as independents and Republicans were swayed to his side after experiencing him first hand. Indeed, as we have witnessed in Pennsylvania, the greater the time that Obama has to meet and greet the voters, the larger his margings become. Indiana's primary is still four weeks away. . .

Rally Video courtesy of Robert Rouse:

DCCC contributions spike after Clinton's threats

OOPS, they did it again:

Last week Hillary Clinton's camp sent a threatening letter to Nancy Pelosi in an attempt to extort a retraction of her view that "superdelegates ought strongly consider the expressed will of voters in their states":

“We have been strong supporters of the DCCC,” the letter stated. “We therefore urge you to clarify your position on super-delegates and reflect in your comments a more open [view] to the optional independent actions of each of the delegates at the National Convention in August.”

In what has become merely the latest in a string of gaffes by the Clinton's, the DCCC has experienced a spike in contributions since the attack. Major Obama donors have called Speaker Pelosi and DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen asking how they could be helpful,and several major Clinton donors, outraged at the letter sent in the name of the campaign, have privately offered their assurances to the DCCC that no money would be cut off. Pelosi was understandably peeved at being "called out" so publically by the Clinton camp:

Two sources close to Pelosi said that the Speaker did not appreciate being called out by the Clinton campaign so publicly. “I I can tell you she’s been disturbed about some of the Clinton campaign’s comments and tactics the last two months, especially saying John McCain would be a better Commander in Chief,” said one Washington-based Democrat who has spoken with Pelosi about the matter.

Pelosi has not endorsed; Clinton advisers and many journalists believe she is a secret supporter of Barack Obama's, although Pelosi aides insist that she's been careful to be - and to appear to be -- neutral.

Hillary Clinton's NAFTA Story Exposed

Hillary, once again, is busted by network video footage:

Clinton compares herself to Rocky

Somebody failed to tell her that the black man prevailed in that one:

Addressing a meeting of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO Tuesday, the former first lady and New York senator said she, like Rocky, wasn't a quitter.

Recalling a famous scene on the steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art, Clinton said to end her presidential campaign now would be as if "Rocky Balboa had gotten halfway up those art museum steps and said, 'Well, I guess that's about far enough.'"

"Let me tell you something, when it comes to finishing a fight, Rocky and I have a lot in common. I never quit. I never give up. And neither do the American people," Clinton said.

In the same meeting of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO where she made the above analogy today, Clinton also proclaimed once more that she fought her husband over the passage of Nafta:

"I clearly recall entering the oval office at that time, under heavy sniper fire and with my head down. Of course, Bill DID have some sort of odd protocol regarding keeping one's head down when entering that office. I never did get that, though I suppose someone else may have."

Clinton also denounced repeated calls for her to end her campaign, even as the latest polling in Pennsylvania suggests that state's primary may end it for her. Her 20 point lead of one month ago now stands at a 5 point lead as of yesterday.

"People told George Bush to bow out in 2000, despite Al Gore's lead. These things can be tended to by the right people; the "Super" friends."

Obama opens up a 10-point lead

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 10 percentage points in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to the latest Gallup daily tracking poll.

That's Obama's biggest lead of the year so far, and the first double-digit lead for either candidate since a February 4-6 poll, when Clinton outpaced Obama by 11 percentage points.

The latest results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted March 27-29. Obama did particularly well in interviewing conducted on March 29.

Memorial Coliseum Campaign Event?

We've had Bill Clinton at the Grand Wayne Center; we've had Hillary Clinton at Sara's Family Restaurant; Barack Obama's campaign had their downtown grand opening yesterday. What could be next now that Fort Wayne is officially on the political map this year? Political Notebook reports that we may see Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton appear at the Allen County Memorial Coliseum before Indiana's May 6th primary:

One influential Fort Wayne Democrat let it slip last week that staffers for Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign are considering an event at Memorial Coliseum in the coming weeks.

So what are the chances?

Coliseum General Manager Randy Brown said he has been approached either directly or indirectly by both Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign about possible dates.

“Nothing’s even on hold for anything, but it could be interesting couldn’t it?” Brown said. “I don’t know if it is even going to go anywhere, but I think it would be a lot of fun if it happened.”

Brown said both candidates, depending on the night chosen, would draw large crowds. But he gave the edge to Obama.

“Certainly Mr. Obama, I think just by nature of his popularity and people from Ohio and Michigan coming over as well, could easily do 11,000 people for an appearance.”

Hillary vs Obama? Lionel questions die hard supporters

Lionel asks Hillary/Obama supporters why you would rather vote for John McCain if your nominee loses? Are you out of your mind?

Obama leading in N.H. Polls

The first post-Iowa poll, by Rasmussen, finds Obama jumping to a 10% lead over Hillary in New Hampshire, with Edwards trailing badly.

Barack Obama	37%
Hillary Clinton	27%
John Edwards	19%
Bill Richardson	8%
Dennis Kucinich	3%
Mike Gravel	1%

Now the American Research Group (ARG) poll, also post-Iowa, may confirm this, showing Obama with a shocking 12% bulge over Clinton at 38% to 26%, with Edwards picking up a fresh 5% and actually threatening Hillary with 20%. That's a 16% swing to Obama since the previous poll.

Most interesting detail deep in the ARG numbers: Hillary actually leads Obama 34% to 32% among confirmed Democrats, while he tops her 49% to 12% among independents, which may make up one-third of the tally. Debate tonight should be interesting....

Top Dogs Slipping in New Hampshire

Bad news for John McCave and Hillary "I'm for change too" Clinton - with only days to go, the numbers are moving away from you in New Hampshire. And those results don't even account for any Iowa bounce for Huckabee and Obama:

In New Hampshire, Clinton's lead over Obama in the Democratic race shrunk slightly to four points, 32 percent to 28 percent. John Edwards, a former North Carolina senator who finished second in Iowa, was in third place with 20 percent.

Among Republicans, McCain's lead over rival Mitt Romney fell by two points to 32 percent against 30 percent. Huckabee, a Baptist minister and former Arkansas governor, gained two points to 12 percent.

"Overall the numbers have not moved that much but there was the beginning of a post-Iowa bounce for Obama and Huckabee," pollster John Zogby said. "We will see more tomorrow but I think we will clearly see them make gains."

Independents, who can participate in either party's primary in New Hampshire, appear to be leaning toward Democrats this year, following a growing national trend. According to Zogby, about 40 percent of the Democratic vote is coming from independents this year while about one fourth of the Republican vote comes from that segment of voters.

Obama, who rode a wave of support for his outsider's message of change to the win in Iowa, leads the Democratic field among independents with 34 percent. Clinton was at 26 percent. On the GOP side, McCain is the top Republican choice for independents at 42 percent, well ahead of Romney at 29 percent.

Craig - Then and Now. . .

Sometimes. . .it's better to receive than to give:

1999 -



2007 -