Safe GOP Seats Down to FIVE!

Via: Gallup

The accompanying map shows party strength by state for 2008, ranging from states that can be considered solidly Democratic (a Democratic advantage in party identification of 10 percentage points or more) to those that can be considered solidly Republican (a Republican advantage in party identification of 10 percentage points or more). States in which the partisan advantage is less than 5 points in either direction are considered "competitive."

The political landscape of the United States has clearly shifted in the Democratic direction, and in most states, a greater proportion of state residents identified as Democrats or said they leaned to the Democratic Party in 2008 than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.

As recently as 2002, a majority of states were Republican in orientation. By 2005, movement in the Democratic direction was becoming apparent, and this continued in 2006. That dramatic turnaround is clearly an outgrowth of Americans' dissatisfaction with the way the Republicans (in particular, President George W. Bush) governed the country.

Obama Gets Bounce From Overseas Trip

Via - Political Wire:

When asked about the political ramifications about his recent trip abroad, Sen. Barack Obama told the New York Times, "I wouldn't even be surprised if in some polls we saw a little bit of a dip because we've been out of the country for a week."

However, at least two daily tracking polls show Obama getting a decent 6-7 point bounce.

Before the trip:

* Rasmussen: Obama 46%, McCain 46%
* Gallup: Obama 45%, McCain 43%

After the trip:

* Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
* Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 41%

Obama opens up 16 point lead over Clinton

Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds Barack Obama with his largest advantage over Hillary Clinton in Democratic voters' nomination preferences thus far, 55% to 39%:

Obama's previous largest lead was 11 percentage points, in May 15-17 and April 12-14 polling. His widening lead over Clinton has been evident in each of the last three days of tracking, after the two had been more closely matched earlier in the month.

Clinton's largest lead in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking was 20 points in mid-January, when she led Obama 48% to 28% (John Edwards was still in the race at that time). (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

Obama opens up a 10-point lead

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 10 percentage points in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to the latest Gallup daily tracking poll.

That's Obama's biggest lead of the year so far, and the first double-digit lead for either candidate since a February 4-6 poll, when Clinton outpaced Obama by 11 percentage points.

The latest results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted March 27-29. Obama did particularly well in interviewing conducted on March 29.

New Gallup Poll: Obama closes in on Clinton

Last week, it was "America's First Black President",Bill Clinton, playing "the race card" (I STILL can't believe it!). This week, it's Hillary demanding that the Michigan and Florida delegates be given to her, after she agreed to the same DNC rules as Obama and Edwards. Hillary. . .open your eyes and look at where these tactics have led you. These are the politics of Republicans - These are the politics that "we the people" are tired of - These are the politics that are destroying your lifelong "dream":

Barack Obama has now cut the gap with Hillary Clinton to 6 percentage points among Democrats nationally in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking three-day average, and interviewing conducted Tuesday night shows the gap between the two candidates is within a few points. Obama's position has been strengthening on a day-by-day basis. As recently as Jan. 18-20, Clinton led Obama by 20 points. Today's Gallup Poll Daily tracking is based on interviews conducted Jan. 27-29, all after Obama's overwhelming victory in South Carolina on Saturday. Two out of the three nights interviewing were conducted after the high-visibility endorsement of Obama by Sen. Edward Kennedy and his niece Caroline Kennedy.

Clinton's lead in the three-day average is now 42% to Obama's 36%. John Edwards, who dropped out of the race Wednesday after Gallup conducted these interviews, ended his quest for the presidency with 12% support. Wednesday night's interviewing will reflect the distribution of the vote choice of former Edwards' supporters as well as the impact, if any, of Hillary Clinton's popular vote win in Florida on Tuesday.

These national numbers are a critically important indicator of the political environment when voters in more than 20 states go to the polls next Tuesday. At the moment, Obama has the momentum among Democrats nationally.

Clinton's National Lead has Vanished

MyDD.com has just reported that Hillary Clinton's national lead has completely disappeared:

Earlier today I noted that Rasmussen Reports found that Hillary Clinton's long-standing large lead over Barack Obama in national polling had all but vanished, falling within the poll's margin of error. Now a new national poll from Gallup shows that Clinton's lead hasn't essentially evaporated -- it has actually evaporated.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama each drew 33% of the support from Democrats surveyed in its latest national poll, Gallup just announced.

In mid-December, well before Obama won last Thursday's Democratic caucuses in Iowa, Clinton held an 18-percentage point lead over him in Gallup's survey -- 45% to 27%.

Before today, Obama had never held or even shared the national lead with Clinton in Gallup's polling.

John Edwards remains third in Gallup's polling of Democrats. His support: 20%, vs. 15% in mid-December.

It's not clear how durable these numbers will be -- or if they even represent the end of the trend or just the beginning. At present, with a tie nationally, it's not clear that Clinton would be able to make up for early losses in the February 5 states, and she certainly could not if this trend continues and Obama actually takes a significant national lead. Nevertheless, this growth in support for Obama nationally could prove fleeting. There is quite a bit of time, still, between now and the beginning of February (nearly a month, in fact...), so there could be a potential for Clinton to stop some of the hemorrhaging of her support in time to make a real push for the big states that will chose their delegates on the superest of super Tuesdays.

Yet even leaving aside the longer term meaning of these numbers, one cannot help but think that this poll could serve to reinforce the results of Iowa in further indicating to voters nationwide, through the establishment media, that Obama can win. This is big time news for the Obama campaign in the short term, a further momentum boost at a time when it is trying to make its final push to make another statement tomorrow night. We've got a heckuva campaign on our hands, folks.

And one more point... John Edwards is not going away. He has vowed to stay in the race through the convention, for whatever that's worth, and he continues to maintain substantial support nationwide. It's not clear to me if he has a path to the nomination at this point -- I had trouble seeing one for him even in the case that he had won Iowa -- but it does seem quite possible that he will continue to play a meaningful role in this race for some time to come.

Does anyone else smell a potential Obama/Edwards ticket? Edwards DID come to Obama's defense in the last debate, attacking Hillary as the "status quo". . .Hmmm. . .

southern man + black man = BAM! Goodnight GOP lock on the south!