Obama Closes the Democrats' Historical National Security Gap

This just in from :

A new Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey shows that after 100 days in office, President Barack Obama has, at least for now effectively erased doubts that Americans have historically harbored about the Democratic Party's vision and competence on national security.

For the first time in our research, Democrats are at full parity on perceptions of which party would best manage national security, while they have moved far ahead of the GOP on specific challenges such as Afghanistan, Iraq, working with our allies, and improving America's image abroad.

Nearly two-thirds of likely voters – 64 percent – approve of the job Obama is doing on national security. That is 6 points higher than his already strong overall job approval rating (at 58 percent, the highest we have yet recorded). On other aspects of national security – from Iraq, to Afghanistan, to terrorism, to the president's foreign diplomacy – the same is true: higher job approval ratings than on the President's overall job approval.

Given their approval of the president's performance on foreign affairs, voters flatly reject the claims from former Vice President Cheney and other Republicans that Obama's policies put America at risk. By nearly a 2 to 1 margin, Americans say that President Obama is doing better, not worse, than his predecessor, George W. Bush, when it comes to national security.

This survey signals a possible generational shift in attitudes that could have broad electoral consequences, depriving Republicans of one of their last remaining advantages just when their image has dropped to an all-time low relative to the Democrats.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Democracy Corps have been conducting special national security polls since 2003.

This analysis is based on a national survey of 1,000 2008 voters including 160 interviewed on cell phones (121 unweighted) and 852 likely 2010 voters (861 unweighted) conducted for Democracy Corps by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, May 10-12, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 percent among 2008 voters and 3.3 among percent likely 2010 voters.

FOX Poll: Obama Preferred over Reagan

Reaganomics officially dead?

According to a recent FOX News poll, 49% of viewers believe that Barack Obama's economic policies are the right medicine for our ailing economy versus 40% who prefer the failed policies of Ronald Reagan. From Talking Points Memo:

The poll also contains some really interesting questions about taxes, which in total make even clearer a classic rule of polling: It can all depend on how the question is phrased.

Check out this question, clearly intended to get an answer that voters prefer low taxes and smaller government: "Which of the following statements do you agree with more? 1. I'd rather pay higher taxes to support a larger government that provides more services. 2. I'd rather pay lower taxes and have a smaller government that provides fewer services."

The answer: 35% for high taxes and bigger government, and 55% for low taxes and smaller government. But take a close look: The question's message is that you, the respondent hearing this question over the phone, are going to be personally paying higher or lower taxes.

On the other hand, take a look at these two questions about progressive taxation: "Do you support or oppose raising taxes on households earning over $250,000 a year and, at the same time, lowering taxes for most other households?" The answer: Support 66%, Oppose 30%. Even 41% of Republicans like the idea.

And this one -- also noted by Greg Sargent: "Do you think asking the wealthiest Americans to pay more in taxes is a good idea because it levels the economic and social playing field, or a bad idea because it punishes hard work and success?" Good idea 55%, Bad idea 39% -- with 29% support from Republicans.

Obama Winning Over McCain Voters

Barack Obama is viewed favorably by more Americans than ever, and three of four say they can relate to him as their president:

Overall, a majority of Americans are confident in Mr. Obama's ability to govern and unify the country, with many who didn't vote for him now seeing him in a positive light. The poll found that 73% of adults approve of the way he is handling the transition and his preparations for becoming president.

"So far so good," said Kathleen Broussard, a 25-year-old massage therapist from Dallas. She voted for Republican Sen. John McCain for president, but said that the day after the election she felt a sense of joy about Mr. Obama's victory that hasn't gone away. "I respect him. And we're all praying for the best. We definitely needed a change, and he's definitely that change."

Bush - 76% Disapproval Rating

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday sets a new record; George W. Bush now holds the highest disapproval record ever, at 76%. In comparison, Nixon held a 66% disapproval rating when he resigned, and Harry Truman, the previous record holder, who had a 67% disapproval rating his last year in office.

On the other hand, Rasmussen Reports has continuing good news for Obama's popularity rating:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Approval Index for Tuesday shows Obama rating is a +18, up ten points from +8 on the night after the election.

The Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve of the way he is handling the role of President-elect. Rasmussen Reports believes that this is a better measure of public perceptions than the overall approval ratings.

Currently, 41% of voters nationwide Strongly Approve of the way that Obama is handling his new role as President-elect while 23% Strongly Disapprove The number who Strongly Disapprove is down nine percentage points since the night after the election.

White Support for Obama at Historic Level

According to a recent Politico analysis of Gallup and Pew Research Center polling, Barack Obama is positioned to win the largest share of white voters of any Democrat in more than three decades. Recent Gallup Polling shows Obama with a 44% level of support among non-Hispanic white voters - the highest number for a Democrat since 47% of whites backed Jimmy Carter in 1976. In comparison, Bill Clinton garnered 43% of this vote in 1996, also the best performance since Carter. No Democrat has won a majority of the white vote since LBJ in 1964 (As he famously predicted).

As I noted two days ago, the latest report by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research found that in 13 battleground states, rural voters — nine in 10 of whom are white — were split, with 46 percent backing Obama and 45 percent McCain. Obama holds solid leads in all of these states. In September these voters favored McCain by 10 points .

86% of white Democrats now support Obama, roughly equal to what John F. Kerry earned in 2004. Until the economic crisis began, that number had been in the 70s, on par with Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Clinton in 1992. Better than 80% of white working-class Democrats now back Obama, roughly a 20-percentage-point rise compared with the week before the Democratic convention.

Obama also splits white independents with McCain, with 46% backing each candidate, a performance unseen by a Democrat since Clinton in 1996. In the past week, Obama’s support has slightly waned with independent white working-class men, the largest group of independents. But he has gained with women in the same bloc.

Why Indiana is Trending Blue in 2008

60% of Hoosier voters list the economy as their top issue, and Obama has a 59-34 lead with those folks:

New polling out today shows Barack Obama with a 2 point lead in the Hoosier State. The question to be answered is "where, in a state that hasn't given it's electoral votes to a Democrat since LBJ, is this support coming from"?

Is it a bounce from the Chicago media market, friendly turf for a widely-known local politician? That market affects 1/5 of the state, not enough for such a dramatic shift. Is it "the black vote"? Black voters normally turn out for Democrats, and it's worth noting that Indiana is 86% white. No serious gains there, either.

A new report from Salon provides some insight into the demographics that really are affecting the presidential race in our state this year - suburban Republicans - "upscale moderate voters who might be attracted to John McCain for economic reasons but recoil because of the social conservatism symbolized by Palin's presence on the ticket".

Some further stats from Polling Point:

-Independents who answered our poll said they went 46-36 for Bush in 2004, now they say they're 49-39 for Obama. That's a 20 point swing.

-But Obama is also peeling off a lot more Republicans than John Kerry did. Bush won them 92-4, but McCain is only up 86-10 in his own party. That's a 12 point gain for Obama even with GOP'ers.

-Obama is leaking a lot fewer Democratic voters here than Kerry did. Kerry won them 73-17, but Obama is taking them 84-11. A 17 point gain there means that Obama is doing double digits better with Democrats, Republicans, and independents relative to 2004 Democratic performance.

-Obama has significantly increased the Democratic performance with urban voters, as the conventional wisdom suggests and you might expect. A 51-38 lead from 2004 is now a 63-32 one. What you might not hear about as much is the fact that is making strong inroads with rural and small town voters as well. Bush won rural voters by 32 points last time, now Obama has halved that and trails McCain by just 16. Bush dominated in the small towns, winning 53-35 last time. Now Obama has the race with those voters in the margin of error, down just 47-44.

Obama Opens Up 16 Point Lead

A new Pew Research Poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in double digits. The polls tracking reflects a steady increase in Obama's lead since mid September:

On the top issue on voter's minds today, the economy, Obama holds a commanding 53% to 32% lead. More results from the poll may be found here.

Obama Pulling Away in Wisconsin

A new Quinnipiac University poll, shows Barack Obama with a massive 54% - 37% lead over John McCain in the Badger State. Interestingly enough, the time frame for the poll, taken last Wednesday through Sunday, included the two days that McCain and Palin spent campaigning in the state, AND after resources were pulled from Michigan and placed IN Wisconsin. In the university's prior poll from 10-3 through 10-7, Obama held a 51% to 43% edge. In other words, the more you see of them, the less you like.

The poll questioned 1,201 likely voters in Wisconsin and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Among female voters, it found Obama leading 59% to 33%. His lead among men was 49% to 41%.

Respondents said Obama did a better job in the second debate than McCain, 58% to 21%.

As in other polls, respondents gave the edge on foreign policy to McCain and the economy to Obama, though 55% said the economy was the biggest issue in the election.

"Even white men favor Barack Obama in Wisconsin where his debate performance and the crumbling economy sparked a doubling of his lead over John McCain," Clay Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac polling center, said in a statement. "It is one of the few battleground states where Obama has a substantial lead among blue-collar voters and Catholics as well as white men."

Similar results are coming out in Michigan, Minnesota, and Colorado. John McCain is down to holding his base. Do you know what "the base" translates to in Arabic?

Al Quaida.

Obama Pulls Ahead in Missouri, North Dakota

It's been said time and time again that nobody wins the presidency without winning the "Show Me State", and Barack Obama is showing Missourians what they want to see! Over the last three weeks, polling there has shown a ten-point swing towards Obama. He now leads John McCain by a 51-43 spread.


In a further setback for the McCain camp, Obama has pulled ahead in one of the deep-red plains states, North Dakota. New polling shows Obama with a 45-43 lead in that state. That's within the poll's margin of error, but is very significant in a state that has gone Democratic only three times since 1916. McCain held a 13-point lead less than a month ago. A surprising 12% remain undecided.

Jack Cafferty: Let's Have The Debate!

Cafferty expresses what most Americans are saying:

Obama Leads 52 to 43

Click the graphic below for the full story:

Obama Leads by 3 Points in Indiana

According to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll, Barack Obama now holds a 47% to 44% lead over John McCain in the Hoosier State. While the Star report doesn't say so, I think it's safe to say that this is the first time that a Democratic presidential contender has held a lead in Indiana since my cousin Lyndon did so back in the year that I was born (1964).




The poll shows a solid lead for Obama in Marion County, but claims McCain holds the remainder of the state. I question that aspect. I am 100% certain that Obama will handily carry Northwest Indiana, Fort Wayne, and Bloomington. I predict a rural vs. urban race that should allow Obama to eke out a close win in Indiana.

As the poll shows, Obama supporters are far more "fired up and ready to go" than McCain's, and Obama trumps his opponent in every important issue except experience. As McCain continues to show his "experience" as he has during this week, people will continue to fall behind Senator Obama.

Democrats & Independents Better Informed than GOP Peers

That's what a new Pew Research survey would seem to suggest:

Not surprisingly, Republicans make up the lion's share of the audience at FOX News - surprisingly, Democrats aren't far behind. I think it's the "keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer" mantra. . .that or a healthy sense of humor.

Obama Gets Bounce From Overseas Trip

Via - Political Wire:

When asked about the political ramifications about his recent trip abroad, Sen. Barack Obama told the New York Times, "I wouldn't even be surprised if in some polls we saw a little bit of a dip because we've been out of the country for a week."

However, at least two daily tracking polls show Obama getting a decent 6-7 point bounce.

Before the trip:

* Rasmussen: Obama 46%, McCain 46%
* Gallup: Obama 45%, McCain 43%

After the trip:

* Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
* Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 41%

Quinnipac: Obama leads by 9 points

"With commanding leads among women and young voters and near unanimous support from black voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 - 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today."

The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 53 percent of American voters say, followed by 16 percent who list the war in Iraq and 11 percent who list health care.

Obama leads McCain 53 - 39 percent among those who list the economy, 65 - 27 percent among those who cite the war and 67 - 27 percent among those worried about health care.

Obama gaining in red states

Political Insider reports that according to recent polls, Sen. Barack Obama is doing extremely well in states that have voted Republican in recent presidential elections:

• Montana: Bush won by 11 points in 2004, Obama leading McCain by 5 points
• Colorado: Bush +4, Obama +5
• Virginia: Bush +8, Obama +2
• New Mexico: Bush +1, Obama +3
• Florida: Bush +5, Obama +2
• Indiana: Bush +20, Obama +1
• Georgia: Bush +16, McCain +1
• Mississippi: Bush +20, McCain +4
• Alaska: Bush +26, McCain +4
• North Carolina: Bush +13, McCain +4

Obama leads McCain in Montana

George Bush won Montana by 20 points in 2004:

Obama leads McCain 48% to 43% in Montana according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. In April, the numbers were reversed with McCain leading 48% to 43% prior to Obama's clinching the Democratic nomination. Obama won the state primary against Hillary Clinton by fifteen points. Fifty percent (50%) of Montana Democrats want Clinton named as Obama’s running mate. Just 29% of all Montana voters would like to see Clinton as the Vice Presidential nominee.

It would be truly stunning if Obama could turn Montana into a competitive state this November. George W. Bush won Montana’s 3 Electoral College Votes by twenty percentage points in 2004 and by twenty-five points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin (Ross Perot picked up 14% of the vote).

The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.

In another possibly bad sign for warmonger McCain, 50% of Montana voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than it is to win the War. 44% hold the opposite view and say victory is more important.

Majority of Americans say "Protect ANWR"

Majority Say Drilling Would Provide No Relief at the Pump, New Poll Shows

Despite a multimillion-dollar campaign to convince lawmakers that they should allow drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, the American public is not buying the oil industry’s arguments, according to a new national poll conducted over the past week and released today. The poll found that 55% of the American public supports continued protection for the Arctic Refuge, while only 36% favor opening the Refuge to drilling. The Arctic Refuge, a pristine landscape that is home to 250 species including caribou, grizzly bears, musk oxen, threatened polar bears, and tens of thousands of migratory birds, is critical to the Gwich’in people who rely on the Refuge’s resources for their subsistence culture. The Refuge has long been the target of drilling advocates, and calls to drill have intensified in recent weeks as gas prices have climbed.

A large majority (74 percent) of those polled said that investing in new energy technology, renewable fuels, and more efficient automobiles is a better way to address energy prices and our long-term needs than is relying on more drilling for a limited amount of oil. According to the poll, only 35 percent of Americans believe that allowing oil companies to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will result in lower gas prices for American consumers. A majority (53 percent) believe drilling in the Refuge will have no effect on the price they pay at the gas pump. “Big Oil has spent millions trying to convince the American public that if only Congress would open the Arctic Refuge and other protected lands, gas prices would go down. It’s a myth the American people just aren’t buying,” said Cindy Shogan, executive director of the Alaska Wilderness League.

A majority of Americans also believe that the pristine wilderness of the Arctic Refuge is far too valuable to risk the permanent damage that drilling would cause. Some 56 percent of those polled said Congress should not allow drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge because “this is one of the most valuable wilderness areas left in the country and it would be permanently damaged by drilling.” According to William H. Meadows, President of The Wilderness Society, “protecting public lands and waters for future generations has been a cornerstone of our American values since the first national parks and wildlife refuges were created in the late 1800s. It is extremely gratifying to see that these national values remain strong in the face of the current energy challenges being faced by the American public,” Meadows said.

The poll also probed whether opening the Refuge made sense when the oil companies already have obtained the right to drill for oil and gas on millions of acres of federal land that they are not using. Today’s poll found that a large majority (68 percent) of Americans believe that there is no reason to open up more Alaskan wilderness to drilling given that oil companies have not drilled in the acres already available to them.

Obama leads McCain in 4 Battleground States

Add Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin to the list of states where Barack Obama leads John McSame. Four Quinnipiac University polls released today reflect the following numbers:

* Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 - 44 percent, including 51 - 39 percent among independent voters.

* Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent, with 46 - 38 percent among independents.

* Minnesota: Obama buries McCain 54 - 37 percent, and 54 - 33 percent with independents.

* Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 52 - 39 percent, and 50 - 37 percent with independents.

A SECOND poll shows Obama 15 Points Ahead

Two days ago I wrote about a Newsweek poll that had Barack Obama opening up a 15 point lead over John McCain. Many, myself included, concluded that the poll must have been a fluke as most other recent polling showed a much smaller edge for Barack. I am happy to report that a Bloomberg/L.A.Times poll released today also shows a 15 point spread between the two candidates:

Democrat Barack Obama has opened a 15-point lead in the presidential race, and most of the political trends -- voter enthusiasm, views of President George W. Bush, the Republicans, the economy and the direction of the country -- point to even greater trouble for rival John McCain.

Illinois Senator Obama, winning support from once skeptical women and Democrats, beats McCain 48 percent to 33 percent in a four-way race, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows. Independent candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader get 7 percent combined, with the remainder undecided.

Obama's margin and most of the poll's findings in other areas give the Democrats a commanding advantage more than four months before the November election, says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director.

``The Obama voters are much more energized and motivated to come out to vote than the McCain voters; McCain is still struggling to win over some of his core groups,'' she says. ``The good news for Obama is also that he seems to be doing better on the issue that is uppermost in voters' minds, and that is the economy.''