The Trends from this Election

I know you've probably seen this map 100 times since Tuesday, but I was struck by the huge swing here in Indiana - the Hoosier State appears as a big blue beacon in the middle of the heartland. In case you've been living under a rock somewhere, this map from the New York Times shows the percentage of increase, for Democrats, from 2004 to 2008:

On the other hand, just to be fair and balanced, here are the results for the Republican shifts for the same time period:

Can you say "Appalachia"? I knew you could.

Why Indiana is Trending Blue in 2008

60% of Hoosier voters list the economy as their top issue, and Obama has a 59-34 lead with those folks:

New polling out today shows Barack Obama with a 2 point lead in the Hoosier State. The question to be answered is "where, in a state that hasn't given it's electoral votes to a Democrat since LBJ, is this support coming from"?

Is it a bounce from the Chicago media market, friendly turf for a widely-known local politician? That market affects 1/5 of the state, not enough for such a dramatic shift. Is it "the black vote"? Black voters normally turn out for Democrats, and it's worth noting that Indiana is 86% white. No serious gains there, either.

A new report from Salon provides some insight into the demographics that really are affecting the presidential race in our state this year - suburban Republicans - "upscale moderate voters who might be attracted to John McCain for economic reasons but recoil because of the social conservatism symbolized by Palin's presence on the ticket".

Some further stats from Polling Point:

-Independents who answered our poll said they went 46-36 for Bush in 2004, now they say they're 49-39 for Obama. That's a 20 point swing.

-But Obama is also peeling off a lot more Republicans than John Kerry did. Bush won them 92-4, but McCain is only up 86-10 in his own party. That's a 12 point gain for Obama even with GOP'ers.

-Obama is leaking a lot fewer Democratic voters here than Kerry did. Kerry won them 73-17, but Obama is taking them 84-11. A 17 point gain there means that Obama is doing double digits better with Democrats, Republicans, and independents relative to 2004 Democratic performance.

-Obama has significantly increased the Democratic performance with urban voters, as the conventional wisdom suggests and you might expect. A 51-38 lead from 2004 is now a 63-32 one. What you might not hear about as much is the fact that is making strong inroads with rural and small town voters as well. Bush won rural voters by 32 points last time, now Obama has halved that and trails McCain by just 16. Bush dominated in the small towns, winning 53-35 last time. Now Obama has the race with those voters in the margin of error, down just 47-44.

"Huge Swing" for Dems in Florida

Anthony Man of the Broward County Florida's Sun-Sentinel reports on the tremendous inroads Democrats are making in southern Florida, as well as the long-term implications of their success:

In the 1980s, charismatic and popular President Reagan helped bring a generation of voters into the Republican Party, where they stayed for years, affecting the balance of power in Congress and in state governments.

Robert Wexler (U.S. Rep.D- Delray Beach,& co-chair of Obama's Florida campaign) sees Obama repeating the same thing today with first-time voters such as Jonathan Caprio — who registered to vote Friday at Southwest Regional Library in Pembroke Pines — joining the Democratic Party.

"I'm excited to vote for whoever is running for the Democrats," he said. "I don't have much of a choice. I don't really like the other party."

Michael Martinez, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida, said there aren't many people shifting from the Republicans to the Democrats. But the allegiance of first-time voters is significant.

"New voters tend to identify with the hot party at the time. In the 1980s, a lot of new voters were identifying with Reagan, because he was sort of the hot commodity," Martinez said.

A reverse Reagan Revolution? I think alot of Republicans already smell the change in the air this year. . .or maybe that's another smell entirely.

The Appalachia Effect

I've read a couple of interesting posts regarding this section of the country, and the election results there. Check them out here and here. Looks like Hillary has a base. . .a base that looks much like the front row at a Willie Nelson concert - 200 feet, and 3 teeth:

The ethnic and cultural character of this part of the country has been more static since the 19th century than anyplace in America. Outside of some of the new growth areas north of Atlanta or Huntsville, or in some of the college towns, most of the people in Appalachia trace their heritage back to immigrants from the borderlands of Northern Britain who began settling the region over 200 years ago. Outside of the Northern part of Appalachia—Pennsylvania in particular—relatively few Eastern or Southern Europeans from the great waves of immigration that started in the 1880's have moved in to the area. It's the most homogeneous region in America