Uncle Jay Explains: The Year in Review

2008 in Review

The Trends from this Election

I know you've probably seen this map 100 times since Tuesday, but I was struck by the huge swing here in Indiana - the Hoosier State appears as a big blue beacon in the middle of the heartland. In case you've been living under a rock somewhere, this map from the New York Times shows the percentage of increase, for Democrats, from 2004 to 2008:

On the other hand, just to be fair and balanced, here are the results for the Republican shifts for the same time period:

Can you say "Appalachia"? I knew you could.

Jeff Merkley Wins in Oregon

Jeff Merkley has eked out a win over Gordon Smith in the state of Oregon, expanding the Democratic lead in the United States Senate. The final tally, with a tied 47-47% percentage, shows Merkley with a 2,547 advantage.

Smith had ran ads aligning himself with President-elect Barack Obama earlier in the campaign. Obama, in the only instance of him doing so, ran an ad in Oregon in support of Merkley. Congrats to the new senator from Oregon!

Our Long Dark Journey has Ended

Final Tally (Minus MO and NC)

Indiana Closing at 9:45 PM

10 PM Update:

Obama now within 7,000 votes of carrying Indiana:





My (almost) final report from the Hoosier State - as of 9:45 PM the race here in Indiana has tightened to 50-49, with McCain leading by a mere 27,000 votes statewide. Regardless, Barack Obama is now the 44th president of these United States. But it will be interesting to see what final numbers I awake to tomorrow morning:

Obama Wins!

That's MY call at 9:35 PM on election night. Obama has picked off Pennsylvania and Ohio - two of the three electability trifecta. He is likely to win Florida and North Carolina as well, possibly even Virginia and Indiana. Goodnight, John Boy. Our long national nightmare is now over. . .

DNC Preview

Sneak Peek before the Convention


Howard Dean addresses the Crowd across from the Pepsi Center


Michelle Obama arrives in Denver

Who's Getting Religion?

The Christian research firm Barna Group, in a study released today, shows that Barack Obama is leading John McCain among nearly all religious affiliations. This should come as quite a shock to those who still believe that he's a Muslim:

For the most part, the various faith communities of the U.S. currently support Sen. Obama for the presidency. Among the 19 faith segments that The Barna Group tracks, evangelicals were the only segment to throw its support to Sen. McCain. Among the larger faith niches to support Sen. Obama are non-evangelical born again Christians (43% to 31%); notional Christians (44% to 28%); people aligned with faiths other than Christianity (56% to 24%); atheists and agnostics (55% to 17%); Catholics (39% vs. 29%); and Protestants (43% to 34%). In fact, if the current preferences stand pat, this would mark the first time in more than two decades that the born again vote has swung toward the Democratic candidate.

Youth Vote Shifts Dramatically Towards Democrats

Pew Research reports:

Trends in the opinions of America's youngest voters are often a barometer of shifting political winds. And that appears to be the case in 2008. The current generation of young voters, who came of age during the George W. Bush years, is leading the way in giving the Democrats a wide advantage in party identification, just as the previous generation of young people who grew up in the Reagan years -- Generation X -- fueled the Republican surge of the mid-1990's.

In surveys conducted between October 2007 and March 2008, 58% of voters under age 30 identified or leaned toward the Democratic Party, compared with 33% who identified or leaned toward the GOP. The Democratic Party's current lead in party identification among young voters has more than doubled since the 2004 campaign, from 11 points to 25 points.

In fact, the Democrats' advantage among the young is now so broad-based that younger men as well as younger women favor the Democrats over the GOP -- making their age category the only one in the electorate in which men are significantly more inclined to self-identify as Democrats rather than as Republicans.

Obama mocks Clinton mocking Obama

Senator dishes it back:

Several days ago, I posted video of Hillary Clinton mocking Obama with "the sky will open up, he will wave his magic wand, and all will be right with the world". Here's Obama responding to that from the very same stage that she utttered it from:

Why 2008 Will be a Perfect Storm for Republicans

By Mark Green:

In hindsight, we can see why incumbent parties have been blamed and creamed in federal elections, like Republicans in 1974 after Watergate and Democrats in 1994 after the failure of health care. Looking ahead, with 13 months to go, a perfect storm is gathering force that will likely decimate Republican strength in federal and state races.

There is no one earthquake producing a political tsunami but rather four separate seismic events that together—short of another terrorist attack or a new war against Iran—will alter the electoral terrain of America.

Iraq: Consider the numbers: when asked who can best end the Iraq war, only 5 percent of Americans in a recent poll said President Bush; consistent majorities of 70 percent want the war to end soon and 60 percent believe Bush misled us into this conflict. Claims of progress may momentarily quell public anger over this monumental blunder—say, General Petraeus's putting a happy face on the war. But such optimism is now as convincing as General Westmoreland's expecting "light at the end of the tunnel" in Vietnam or Baghdad Bob's denying American troops were anywhere near the Baghdad airport while those troops were seizing it.

What exactly can GOP candidates say next fall in the face of no WMD, no link between Saddam and 9/11, no ties between Saddam and al Qaeda, no flowers for "liberators," 5 million refugees both out of and within Iraq, Administration approval of torture, over 30,000 American dead and wounded as well as over 100,000 Iraqis killed -- not to mention an increase in terrorism world-wide? "Give us more time" for a war that's lasted longer than World War II?

None of this worked in 2006 and will be even less pervasive in 2008. As Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) recently acknowledged after a Senate vote on the war, the public knows this is Bush's and the Republican's war and will reward or punish candidates accordingly.

Economy: Most economic forecasters are predicting a one in two chance of a recession due to the foreclosure crisis leading to a credit crisis. Nor can Republican candidates convincingly cite Bush's eight-year record if '08 goes flat. Average monthly job creation and economic growth under Clinton was 237,000 and 3.6 percent; under Bush, it's 53,000 and 2.6 percent. Even if there's no recession but merely a slowdown, incumbent parties historically still lose seats and the White House if economic growth falls below 3 percent in the election year, as now seems inevitable.

At the same time, this Administration's record on spending and deficits—turning a projected $5.6 trillion surplus into $3 trillion in deficits—is dividing its own business base, according to Wall Street Journal last week. Now when asked which party would better maintain prosperity, it's Democrats by 54-34 percent according to Gallup.

And for the first time in several generations, the economic debate may include not only growth but also distribution. Static median income over the Bush years combined with winner-take-all increases in wealth by the top 1 percent have not gone unnoticed. A Pew Poll in 1988 found that by 71 to 25 percent, Americans thought themselves “haves” rather than “have nots”; by 2001, it was 48 to 48 percent. Any such data or arguments provoke Republicans to shout, “class warfare.” But this is blaming the mirror for the image. Can conservatives explain how ExxonMobil's Lee Raymond earned more per hour in 2005 than his average employee earned per year?

Intolerance: The GOP claiming to the "party of Lincoln" is a pretense long beyond its expiration date. During the Cold War, Republicans could successfully run against Reds and Blacks. Yet with the decline of Communism and the Southern Strategy, GOP strategists have instead turned to targeting terrorists, immigrants and gays. Hence all those terror alerts and anti-gay referenda in 2004, and strident anti-immigrant rhetoric in 2007. But can the GOP rely simply on white men to win, blowing off racial and other minorities in a country increasingly minority? Bush's small gain in the black vote from 8% in 2000 to 11% in 2004, including a pivotal 16% in Ohio, helped cement his narrow victory.

The recent refusal of leading Republican presidential candidates to attend key black, Latino and gay debates prodded former vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp to complain, “We sound like we don't want immigration; we sound like we don't want black people to vote for us. What are we going to do—meet in a country club in the suburbs one day?” It won't suffice any longer for 2008 convention organizers to put every minority delegate on the stage, hoping pictures will substitute for policy.

Children: President Bush made good on his threat to veto the expansion of the SCHIP program to extend health insurance to another 4 million children, notwithstanding the bi-partisan support of 43 governors and an 84 percent majority in a CBS-New York Times poll. He complains that such a move would federalize, even socialize, health care. So will he now end Medicare and Medicaid?

Yes, it would cost another $35 billion annually, but that would be entirely covered by a proposed increase in the tobacco tax. It's revealing that an administration which didn't veto any spending bills for six years and didn't sweat $50 billion in oil subsidies and $10 billion a month for Iraq now draws the line against providing health care to children at no-cost to the federal budget. It approaches political suicide for the Bush Administration and four top GOP presidential candidates to elevate the rhetoric of free-market fundamentalism over the reality of millions of children lacking health insurance.

Pro-war and anti-growth, anti-minorities, anti-children. Not a good way to run for election.

Beyond these four problems, a variety of other realities combine to dig Republicans into an even deeper hole. Recent polls show Democrats are more trusted on every domestic and foreign policy issue: education, health care, environment, economic growth, fiscal discipline, even terrorism. The number of Americans who self-identify as Republican is at a seven year low. While Americans believing the country is "on the wrong tack" was 50 percent in 2002 and 2004, it's now 67 percent. National Democratic committees and presidential candidates are outraising their Republican counterparts better than 2 to 1. And then there's the fact that Republicans are defending 22 Senate seats in 2008 compared to 12 for the Democrats. Nine Republican Senate seats are now considered vulnerable (Alaska, Colorado, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon and Virginia).

Adding it all up: look for Democrats to end up with a near filibuster-proof 58 Senate seats (up from 51) and 260 House seats (up from 213 in 2005 and 233 in 2007). The 2006 and 2008 elections would then be the equivalent of a rolling realignment, comparable to the 51, 49 and 53 House seats that switched hands in 1958, 1974 and 1994 respectively. For when there's a tidal wave of sentiment, it doesn't tip some close contests but nearly all close contests. What John Kenneth Galbraith said of Black Monday 1933 is true for the GOP today: "The end had come, but it was not yet in sight."

Green, former New York City public advocate, is president of Air America Radio and author of the coming paperback "Losing Our Democracy."

Hagel Calls it "Quits"

Nebraska's Chuck Hagel plans to leave the Senate after two terms as a Republican Party maverick, according to sources close to the Senator. Hagel has scheduled a press conference for 10 a.m. Monday at the Omaha Press Club where he's expected to announce that "he will not run for re-election and that he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008".

His retirement leaves another GOP Senate seat without an incumbent at a time when the Republican Party is struggling to stem potential losses and must defend more seats than Democrats. Possible successors on the Republican side include Attorney General Jon Bruning, financial adviser Pat Flynn, former Gov. Mike Johanns, Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, and Columbus businessman Tony Raimondo.

Former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey has voiced interest in returning to the Senate. Other Democratic contenders could include Scott Kleeb, who lost a race to Republican Adrian Smith in the 3rd Congressional District last year, and Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey.

65 Percent Of Under-30s Paying Attention To 2008 Election

This can only be considered good news for progressives, considering how right the kids got it in 2004 - From the New York Times:

It’s the middle of summer and months before the first vote is cast, yet polls confirm what the political cognoscenti suspect: most Americans are already tuning into the presidential election.

More than two-thirds of respondents in a New York Times/CBS News poll earlier this month said they were paying at least some attention to the 2008 presidential campaign. That is up substantially from this time four years ago, when 4 in 10 Americans were paying attention.

Attention is higher now than it was in July 2003 among both men and women and across all age groups. As was the case four years ago, older respondents are more likely to be engaged.

Still, attention among younger Americans is up considerably: 36 percent of those under age 30 were paying attention to the election at this point four years ago; 65 percent of them are now.

Attention among Democrats increased more than it did among Republicans (polls have shown that Democrats are much more satisfied with their party’s presidential candidates than Republicans are).

More than 7 in 10 Democrats are now engaged in the campaign, compared with just over 4 in 10 in 2003. That compares with two-thirds of Republicans who are now paying attention, up from about half.

Dem coffers outweighing GOP's

From almost any angle, Republicans are facing a Democratic financial tsunami in 2008. In the first six months of this year, Democratic federal candidates and the party's three national committees raised $381 million compared with the $291 million their counterparts collected. That amounts to a $90 million advantage and means that 57 percent of the total raised by all political candidates and committees has gone to the Democrats:


And that's the good news for Republicans.

When the cash on hand is added up for presidential, House and Senate candidates, as well as the party committees, the picture is even bleaker. Overall, Democrats reported having $314 million in cash compared with the Republicans' $190 million, which means that 62 percent of the political cash is now held in Democratic accounts.

What does that mean at political micro-levels? The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a 10-1 cash advantage over its Republican adversary, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a cash advantage that is three times greater than the National Republican Senatorial Committee's take.

The top two Democratic candidates each have nearly as much money in the bank as the combined savings of the entire 2008 Republican field. The 10 Republicans running for president reported a combined total of $36 million cash on hand - Obama has $35 million and Clinton has $33 million available for the primary race.

"I cannot remember a time when the Democrats have had an advantage in the party committees and at the candidate level at the same time," said Michael J. Malbin, executive director of the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute.

Certainly, money alone doesn't win elections. Campaign trails leading to the Oval Office and to the lowly House echo with the tales of well-funded campaigns that met early ends. But money does create options, and at this pace, the Democrats see theirs growing, while the Republicans may well be losing some.

Take a look at the House. In January, newly selected DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen laid out a plan to defend his vulnerable freshmen while simultaneously attacking Republicans who eked through last November. "If we continue the current pace, we will have the resources to fully support that strategy," he said. Meanwhile, Rep. Tom Cole, who heads the National Republican Congressional Committee, started the year with quite a different set of priorities: Pay off the committee's debt and then start tucking money away for the campaign season.

Cole has made good on his promise. The committee has raised $29 million and spent $27 million. Today, it has got $2 million in the bank and $4 million in debts outstanding, according to its reports. Cole seems on track to move the committee's balance from red to black by year's end.

But that's when the hard slog begins, because the Democrats' edge isn't just the byproduct of high energy within their ranks. The long-feared Republican fundraising machine also appears to be in decline. While the Republican National Committee has maintained its dominance over the Democratic National Committee, raising $45 million to the DNC's $27 million, even that edge is on the lower end of historic patterns.

And consider this: When President Bush was running for reelection in 2004, his appearance at the RNC's annual spring gala raised $38.5 million. During last year's congressional campaign season, the presidential gala raised $17 million. This year, it raised $10.5 million.

In addition, the loss of control of Congress has stripped Republicans of one of their most lucrative fundraising assets: committee chairmanships. According to a Center for Inquiry study released last week, corporate donors have made a seismic shift since January toward the new Democratic chairmen. In the first six months of this year, political action committees donated $41 million to Democrats, compared with $24 million for Republicans. During the previous year, Republicans received $32 million in PAC contributions, compared with $22 million for the Democrats, the report concluded.

The presidential campaign season also looms as an obstacle to congressional fundraising. In private conversations, Republican fundraising experts dismiss the yawning gap between their primary field and the Democrats' roster. "When the nominee becomes clear, he will have all the resources he needs," said one longtime Republican operative.

History supports that notion. After scraping through hard times in the 2003 Democratic primary, John Kerry found himself flush with cash, even matching the Bush-Cheney machine, when he swept the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.

But that gush of money does not automatically extend to the congressional committees. Van Hollen said he spends plenty of time these days warning donors: "Do not take the House for granted. Things can change quickly."

Even if the money rolls in, managing it frugally can be crucial. In the 2006 cycle, the Republican House committee raised more than the Democrats. What both sides said helped tip the scales in many races was that the Democrats outspent the Republicans in the final weeks of that contentious campaign cycle.

How did they manage that? . . .they had more cash in the bank.

"Rotten Rudy"

Click on Rotten Rudy's picture below to hear the awesome new tune "Rotten Rudy":

Virtual Town Hall Meeting

Next Tuesday—April 10th—at 7:15pm Eastern, MoveOn.org is using the Internet to connect presidential candidates directly to the people.

Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich, and Joe Biden will answer questions from MoveOn.org's 3.2 million members in the first of three unprecedented virtual town hall meetings. - The topic: Iraq.

You can sign up to attend a local house party and experience the virtual town hall with others by going here:

Virtual Town Hall Meeting

Rudy's abortion views

Just for clarification. . .



. . .that should play well with the social conservatives.

IAFF Union Letter on Giuliani

I heard this story on the radio earlier in the week, and just ran across the full text of it over at Carbon Paper. It is merely one small piece of the true Rudy that most Americans are unfamiliar with. . .Here it is in it's entirety:

On March 14, 2007, the IAFF will host the first bi-partisan Presidential Forum of the 2008 election cycle. No other union and very few organizations has the credibility and respect to attract top-tier candidates from both political parties. The lineup of speakers who have agreed to participate in our Forum is truly a testament to our great union and the reputation we have built as a powerful political force and a coveted endorsement.

John Edwards, John McCain, Barack Obama, Chuck Hagel, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, Duncan Hunter and seven other candidates will make their case before the 1,000 delegates who will be attending the Forum and to our entire membership via same-day broadcast on our web site.

Early on, the IAFF made a decision to invite all serious candidates from both political parties — except one: former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

We made this decision after considerable soul-searching and close consultation with our two New York City affiliates, the Uniformed Firefighters Association Local 94 and the Uniformed Fire Officers Association Local 854, as well as our former Local 94 President and current IAFF 1st District Vice President covering New York.

The IAFF recognizes that Mayor Giuliani generally enjoys a favorable reputation as a result of his actions immediately after the tragedy of 9/11. As such, we want our affiliates and every one of our members to clearly understand the reason and rationale behind this very serious and sober decision.

Many people consider Rudy Giuliani "America's Mayor," and many of our members who don't yet know the real story, may also have a positive view of him. This letter is intended to make all of our members aware of the egregious acts Mayor Giuliani committed against our members, our fallen on 9/11, and our New York City union officers following that horrific day.

Rest assured, our exclusion of Mayor Giuliani is not about any particular contractual or policy issue or disagreement, nor is it based on his unfriendly relationship with our New York City affiliates prior to 9/11 — which we will document and explain in additional correspondence later on during the campaign. In fact, we invited several candidates with whom we have had substantial disagreement on policy issues because we feel very strongly that our members have the right to hear from all candidates, not just those who tow the IAFF line.

Regrettably, the situation with former Mayor Giuliani is very different. His actions post 9/11 rise to such an offensive and personal attack on our brother and sisterhood — and directly on our union — that the IAFF does not feel Rudy Giuliani deserves an audience of IAFF leaders and members at our own Presidential Forum.

The disrespect that he exhibited to our 343 fallen FDNY brothers, their families and our New York City IAFF leadership in the wake of that tragic day has not been forgiven or forgotten.

In November 2001, our members were continuing the painful, but necessary, task of searching Ground Zero for the remains of our fallen brothers and the thousands of innocent citizens that were killed, because precious few of those who died in the terrorist attacks had been recovered at that point.

Prior to November 2001, 101 bodies or remains of fire fighters had been recovered. And those on the horrible pile at Ground Zero believed they had just found a spot in the rubble where they would find countless more that could be given proper burial.

Nevertheless, Giuliani, with the full support of his Fire Commissioner Thomas Von Essen, decided on November 2, 2001, to sharply reduce the number of those who could search for remains at any one time. There had been as many as 300 fire fighters at a time involved in search and recovery, but Giuliani cut that number to no more than 25 who could be there at once.

In conjunction with the cut in fire fighters allowed to search, Giuliani also made a conscious decision to institute a "scoop-and-dump" operation to expedite the clean-up of Ground Zero in lieu of the more time-consuming, but respectful, process of removing debris piece by piece in hope of uncovering more remains.

Mayor Giuliani's actions meant that fire fighters and citizens who perished would either remain buried at Ground Zero forever, with no closure for families, or be removed like garbage and deposited at the Fresh Kills Landfill.

Our Local presidents at the time attempted to meet with the Mayor to stop this despicable treatment of those who perished, but he refused to even see them face-to-face.

The scoop-and-dump continued. And when hundreds of family members of the fallen joined with our affiliate leadership and members to protest Giuliani's decision, he ordered senior officers of the New York Police Department to arrest 15 of our FDNY brothers, including a number of local elected IAFF leaders.

Giuliani modified his policy after the protest because public opinion was so strongly with our members. Ultimately, he was forced to put the fire fighters back on the pile. Our protests were later proven justified as more bodies were ultimately recovered and those families given a chance for some closure and a decent burial.

Giuliani argued that the change was for our own safety, but his argument was empty and without substance. Fire fighters had been on that pile since minutes after the twin towers fell — why all of a sudden, after nearly two months working on the pile, was Giuliani concerned about fire fighter safety?

In our view, he wasn't really concerned. The fact is that the Mayor's switch to a scoop-and-dump coincided with the final removal of tens of millions of dollars of gold, silver and other assets of the Bank of Nova Scotia that were buried beneath what was once the towers. Once the money was out, Giuliani sided with the developers that opposed a lengthy recovery effort, and ordered the scoop-and-dump operation so they could proceed with redevelopment.

In the first few days immediately after the disaster, Giuliani had said he was committed to the recovery of those lost "right down to the last brick." We believed him at the time. But, what he proved with his actions is that he really meant the "last gold brick."

Giuliani crucified fire fighters after our protest and publicly stated that our members were essentially acting like babies, that they didn't have the market cornered on grief. His insensitive statements demonstrated his inability to grasp what members of the FDNY were experiencing.

What Giuliani showed is a disgraceful lack of respect for the fallen and those brothers still searching for them. He exposed our members and leaders to arrest. He valued the money and gold and wanted the site cleared before he left office at the end of 2001 more than he valued the lives and memories of those lost.

Our members deserved the right to continue with a full search for their lost brothers and other innocent victims. Proudly, as you know, the fire service has a code similar to the military, where we leave no one behind. Recovering even a piece of a turnout coat or helmet gave our FDNY brothers and sisters and the families of the fallen some small semblance of peace, something to honor. But hundreds remained entombed in Ground Zero when Giuliani gave up on them.

The fundamental lack of respect that Giuliani showed our FDNY members is unforgivable - and that's why he was not invited. Our disdain for him is not about issues or a disputed contract, it is about a visceral, personal affront to the fallen, to our union and, indeed, to every one of us who has ever risked our lives by going into a burning building to save lives and property.

We have heard from some affiliates that Giuliani's campaign is beginning to reach out to our locals, looking to build support. If you are contacted by Giuliani, Von Essen, or a representative of the Giuliani campaign, we hope you will say not just, "No," but, "Hell no." And please let the IAFF Political Affairs Department know about it by calling (202) 824-1582.

Please share this correspondence with your membership. Thank you.

Fraternally and Sincerely,

Harold A. Schaitberger, General President

Vincent J. Bollon, General Secretary-Treasurer and Past President, UFOA of NYC, Local 854

Kevin Gallagher, IAFF 1st District Vice President and Past President, UFA of NYC, Local 94

Stephen Cassidy, President, UFA of NYC, Local 94

Peter Gorman, President, UFOA of NYC, Local 854