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Saturday, January 05, 2008

Obama leading in N.H. Polls

The first post-Iowa poll, by Rasmussen, finds Obama jumping to a 10% lead over Hillary in New Hampshire, with Edwards trailing badly.

Barack Obama

37%

Hillary Clinton

27%

John Edwards

19%

Bill Richardson

8%

Dennis Kucinich

3%

Mike Gravel

1%

Now the American Research Group (ARG) poll, also post-Iowa, may confirm this, showing Obama with a shocking 12% bulge over Clinton at 38% to 26%, with Edwards picking up a fresh 5% and actually threatening Hillary with 20%. That's a 16% swing to Obama since the previous poll.

Most interesting detail deep in the ARG numbers: Hillary actually leads Obama 34% to 32% among confirmed Democrats, while he tops her 49% to 12% among independents, which may make up one-third of the tally. Debate tonight should be interesting....

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