Does Aboite have the Blues?

One might think so, after Tom Henry captured 57% of the vote out here. In actuality, Aboite Township suffers from neither a bad case of "the blues" or an episode of "scarlet fever". There's a solid reason why "The Aboite Factor" didn't automatically swing the local mayoral race to the GOP. It's a phenomenon that I first noted last year during the congressional match-up between Mark Souder and Tom Hayhurst, and it carried through to this election cycle: Aboite is comprised mainly of independent voters.

In 2006, the general consensus was that Tom Hayhurst would have his ass handed to him by voters here in Aboite. Yet he carried the township. Indeed, Hayhurst was actually winning the district on that election eve until the results began coming in from Kocsiusko and Elkhart counties, where the rural voters get little information outside of their biased local rags and WOWO radio.

One of the indicators that I had noted from that cycle held true in this one, but fell apart on the lower portion of the ticket: yard signs versus large corporate-sponsored signs. Souder and Kelty both had the "in yer face" large signs placed in front of businesses and corporate owned properties, while local home-owners signs, although smaller in physical size, greatly outweighed them by sheer numbers.

The sole exception was Chris Stewart, who entered the council rate at a late date due to Charles Langley exiting the race. Homeowners rallied behind Stewart as evidenced by their yard-sign support; yet Harper prevailed in that race. Given equal campaign lengths, Stewart likely would have won as he ran a FAR better ground game during his short run.

Take Aboite for granted? Do so at your own peril.

Is it a GOP lock? Obviously not.