The Contours of the New Electorate

From DemocracyCorps.com:

Special Report on the Democracy Corps Database

"At important turning points, we like to pause and look at the whole database of surveys conducted by Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner – focusing in particular on the 4,000 interviews conducted during the last four months. There are big changes here that have an enduring quality, with the opportunity to shape the parties’ prospects in 2008."

"Right now, the Democrats enjoy an average lead of 12 points in the generic presidential race (51 to 39 percent) and 9 points in the named congressional ballot (51 to 42 percent). But let us point to some of the trends underneath that make 2008 look like a very big election."

• The Democrats’ lead in both the Presidential and Congressional races is undiminished in the ‘core’ group of the most likely voters. Usually, the Republicans cut some of the margin on Election Day because of turnout patterns, but that is not likely in 2008.

• Education – one of the best predictors of vote over the past decade – is losing its power, with both well-educated and blue collar voters moving to the Democrats. In the Congressional ballot, for example, the high school educated give the Democrat an 11-point lead, dropping to 10 points among those with some high school and 8 points among the college educated. In short, the rush to be done with the Republicans is turning America a little classless.

• The ‘opinion elite’ in the country – those with a college education and earning more than $75,000 – are supporting the Democratic presidential candidate by 11 points (52 to 41 percent). The elites are apparently fed up with the state of the country under George Bush.

• While the Democratic Presidential candidate is winning the Kerry counties by a two-to-one margin, the Republican candidate is only winning the Bush counties by 1 point (46 to 45 percent). The Republican nominee will struggle to come back in the battleground states. Just as important, a lot of Republican incumbents will be running in supposedly ‘red’ districts and states, but find them evenly divided. The Republican Presidential candidate is barely ahead among white rural voters (48 to 41 percent).

All of these numbers, even with a broken spine. Hell, with a good orthopedist, we could have a clean sweep. . .