The RNC Mid-term Strategy

Karl Rove and RNC Chair Ken Mehlman have settled on a narrow strategy to try to minimize Congressional losses while tending to Bush’s political strength. The White House will reprise the two T’s of its successful campaign strategy since 2002: terrorism and turnout.

It's their determination that control of Congress is likely to be settled in as few as six states (Connecticut, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsyalvania and Washington) and have decided to focus most of the party’s resources there. These battle lines, according to Republican officials who did not want to be identified discussing internal deliberations, may shift in coming weeks.

BushCo is largely and tellingly all but ignoring the 36 governors’ races, although Rove and Bush vow to continue to help Republican gubernatorial candidates via fundraising "meet and greets". Indeed, most smart conservatives are saying "No, thanks" to these offers of support from an increasingly unpopular president. This has broad significance, as building a foundation of Republican governors was a main part of Rove’s goal of creating long-term Republican majority status.

The Republican National Committee expects to spend a record $60 million for the midterm elections, half of which will pay for get-out-the-vote operations in the targeted states. Fortunately enough, national Democratic groups and most of the grass-roots organizations were already anticipating these tactics, and are targeting the very same races that Mehlman and Rove deem so important to the "longevity of the empire". . .

Indeed, despite his reputation as the nation’s premier strategist, Rove is being pulled down by the same lackluster approval rating (38% give or take) as his puppet/pupil/pet, Bush. Many Republicans are disregarding Mr. Rove’s advice,are criticizing Bush and his policies in their campaigns, and are avoiding public events with Bush and Rove.

Even influential conservative commentators have openly broken with the White House, calling into question the continued enthusiasm of evangelicals, economic conservatives and other groups that Rove has counted on to win elections. Some are even ignoring Rove’s efforts to hold the party together on issues like immigration and Iraq. It sure smells like Rome is burning. . .