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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

MSNBC calls Pennsylvania for Clinton

MSNBC has called Pennsylvania for Hillary Clinton at 8:45 pm. I'm not entirely sure how they can do this so early. Initially, with 1% reporting, she led 70-30. With 2% in, it was 65-35. At 3% reporting, it was 60-40. Over the last 15 minutes I've watched the percent reporting increase to 5%, and the spread drop to 53-47.

As usual, Chris Matthews demonstrated his mental state. Listen to his declaration and pay attention to the clock in the lower left part of the video:

Exit polls show that overall expectations are on Obama's side -- more than half in the PA exit polls preliminary results say they expect him, not Clinton, to be the party's eventual nominee. Indeed, there's no possible way for her to match his lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote.

At 9 PM with 6% in, it's 52-48.

At 9:15 with 12% in, it's 53-47.

At 9:30 with 20% in, it's STILL 53-47.

At 9:45 with 35% in, it's 54-46.

At 10 PM with 50% in, it's still 54-46. Of note, Philly and it's suburbs are mostly missing from the totals at this time. That's Obama territory.

At 10:15 with 60% in, still at 54-46.

Last entry - at 10:30 with 70% reporting, still at 54-46. We look forward to ending the ride here in the Hoosier state in two weeks, Hill. See you here and then. . .

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Blogger Stan Matuska said...

John - I would give you the latest statistics at 11:30PM, but by the time you read this, it will be old news.

It was an expected win for Hillary. I am really curious how Indiana will lean May 6th. As long as it's left, we'll all be ok =)

title="comment permalink">April 22, 2008 11:35 PM  
Blogger Phil Marx said...

It's simple John. You take the percetage of the vote currently received by the lead candidate and multiply it by the total percentage of votes received so far. If this number is greater than 0.50, then the contest is over. If it is less than this, then they are engaging in pure speculation.

So let's check those numbers:
.70 x .01 = .007
.65 x .02 = .013
.60 x .03 = .018
.53 x .05 = .027
.52 x .06 = .031
.53 x .12 = .064
.53 x .20 = .106
.54 x .35 = .189
.54 x .50 = .270
.54 x .60 = .324
.54 x .70 = .378

Well, with Hillary Clinton so far having received only a little over one third of the total votes cast, it is obvious that this is still an open race. I'm almost rooting for Obama here just because Matthews is such an idiot.

But Matthews is a pundit, not a journalist, so what do you expect?

title="comment permalink">April 23, 2008 5:39 AM  

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