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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Turnout Good for Dems - Bad for GOP

Curtis Gans of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate has issued his final report on turnout in the 2008 election. The one thing that really stood out for me is how a higher turnout has consistently favored Democrats (See graph below). Another notable part of the report points out that the GOP is swiftly losing their base:

Within the next few decades, white Americans, the only demographic sub-group from which the GOP draws significant numbers of voters, will be in the minority.

The only way that the Republican Party can restore its majority status is if Obama fails utterly, and they win via the negative vote or if they reconstitute their advocacy and actions (and not with symbols) so that they have some programmatic appeal to an increasing diverse America.

Similarly, the Democrats can solidify their hold on the future only if the Obama administration is seen as effectively responding to the many and deep crises of today in a manner that recalls Roosevelt facing the depression or Lincoln with respect to slavery and secession.




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